Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 37 brokers · 399 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-21.
Brokers model Salesforce as a steady high-single to low-double-digit grower where the headline consensus is tight and the real debate sits in forward demand and product mix. Current RPO and billings — the leading indicators — show growth that peaked around 13% and is fading toward 10%. Within the top line, only the AI-exposed Platform cloud is accelerating while Marketing & Commerce has effectively stalled. Segment coverage thins sharply beyond FY-2026 as Salesforce shifts to a new 'Agentforce apps' reporting structure.
Current RPO and billings drive the model; cRPO growth fades from ~13% to ~10%
Total billings and current RPO are the cleanest read on future subscription revenue; both keep compounding in dollars, but constant-currency cRPO growth cools from 13.5% in FY-2026 to under 10% thereafter. The cRPO growth line rests on only 5-8 brokers.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total billings | $39.43bn | $43.81bn | $48.67bn | $53.11bn | +11.1% | 33 |
| RPO - Current | $30.15bn | $34.58bn | $38.97bn | $43.06bn | +12.7% | 27 |
| Total RPO | $61.62bn | $70.74bn | $79.37bn | $84.50bn | +12.2% | 20 |
| RPO - Current - CC growth(%) | 9.8% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 9.6% | -3.8pt | 14 |
Platform is the only accelerating cloud; Marketing & Commerce has stalled
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue - Platform and other | $7.19bn | $8.52bn | $11.19bn | $13.41bn | +31.4% | 24 |
| Revenue - Service | $9.10bn | $9.85bn | $10.58bn | $11.46bn | +7.5% | 24 |
| Revenue - Sales | $8.36bn | $9.03bn | $9.74bn | $10.30bn | +7.8% | 24 |
| Revenue - Data | $5.79bn | $6.46bn | $6.65bn | $7.35bn | +2.9% | 24 |
| Revenue - Marketing and Commerce | $5.30bn | $5.46bn | $5.54bn | $5.73bn | +1.5% | 24 |
Brokers disagree most on how big the AI-exposed Platform cloud becomes
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue - Platform and other | FY-2027E | $11.19bn | $10.44bn–$11.65bn | $9.57bn–$12.73bn | 12 |
| Revenue - Platform and other | FY-2028E | $12.91bn | $11.69bn–$14.15bn | $10.34bn–$18.24bn | 12 |
| Revenue - Data | FY-2028E | $7.25bn | $6.91bn–$7.72bn | $6.21bn–$9.38bn | 12 |
Subscription gross margin is drifting lower as AI compute costs weigh
Subscription & support gross margin is modeled to slip from 85.4% in FY-2026 toward 84.9% by FY-2028 — a modest but consistent decline across 18-19 brokers, consistent with rising cost of delivery as AI features scale.
Segment, ARR and churn lines thin out beyond FY-2026
Salesforce is migrating to a new 'Agentforce apps' and 'Data 360' reporting structure, so the traditional cloud split drops from ~23 brokers in FY-2026 to 12-13 in outer years, while the new Agentforce apps line (14 brokers) exists only from FY-2027. ARR, renewal billings and churn are modeled by just 1-4 brokers and should not be read as consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.